What’s the deal with Web 2.0? And what are these predictions that it will crash? It all started with Steve Rubel’s prediction for 2006. Let’s start off with some background on what Web 2.0 is.
In the beginning of the Internet, life was simple. It was point and click. Links lead you to pages with other links. Web pages were not filled with any sort of rich content like you see today. That was Web 1.0.
Today, the Web has dramatically changed with Flash, XHTML, RSS, Wikis, and Ajax. But, more than that, the Web has and is becoming its own computing platform. Forget applications and data stored locally on your computer. Now, you’re accessing documents through the Internet, central servers, and you’re finding more Web applications. Web 2.0 has begun to change our lives. We blog more than ever and easier. We use services like Flickr to share our photos. Publishing has been made easier. RSS has made in
formation dissemination easier. Then there’s Gmail, a wonderful web application that makes email management easier and faster than ever on the Internet. So what’s the big deal with this “Web 2.0 Crash?” A Google search puts Rubel’s blog right on top. The point he makes is that most Web 2.0 apps are based on social networking… And there are a ton of these start-ups. How do they survive? Advertising. Steve says:
“Unfortunately, the reality is that for all of the hype this year around online advertising, it is not growing as quickly as the Web 2.0 market hopes. … This spells trouble for startups hoping to capitalize on online advertising. There won’t be enough to go around – at least right now. Their window is closing.”
So basically he predicts that all these new start-up web apps that can only survive with online advertising will fail. Alright Mr. Rubel, we’ve heard your say about this, and in fact I think you begun all this speculation. But what about other sources? Mike Butcher from netimperative.com says that 2006 will be the year where traditional marketing will die. Advertising will completely change because of Web 2.0. These new technologies make a smarter consumer and will make it harder for advertisers. Many on Gather.com feel Web 2.0 is just a marketing ploy. Chris Law writes a blog from Silicon Valley. He thinks it’s too soon to predict a Web 2.0 crash. It is after all in its infancey right?
“It’s going to be at least another 9-12 months before the companies that are being funded now will show traction (or not). That’s when we’ll see if it’s really a bubble.”
Shel Israel, author of Naked Conversations, agrees that Web 2.0 is only just beginning. I think lots of talk begun after the October Web 2.0 Conference (below) and Steve Rubel is fueling this more. Seems though, most of the online community see it as something that has just begun to flourish. Same goes with all the hype!
